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白酒行业:紧跟高端大势、保持连续增长

2021-01-05 08:00  中国酒业新闻  佳酿网  字号:【】【】【】  参与评论  阅读:

2020年行业遭遇疫情冲击,但纵观全年来看,行业的基本发展趋势没有发生变化――消费升级、品牌集中仍然是行业的关键词。

FENXIYUPANDUAN:

2020NIANFUPAN――YIQINGCHONGJIXIA,XIAOFEISHENGJIJIXU、JINGZHENGFENHUAMINGXIAN

YISHIXIAOFEISHENGJIJIXU,GAODUANXUQIUYUEFAMINGXIAN。

1、4YUEFENXINGYEKAISHIFUSU,DANBUTONGJIAWEIDUANBIAOXIANCHUDEXUQIUCHAYIJIAOWEIMINGXIAN。

2、ZHONGDANGJIYIXIAJIAWEIBIAOXIANCHUXUQIUFALI,YIFANGMIANSHIXIAOFEIZHEDECHUNJIEKUCUN,LINGYIFANGMIANSHIDAZHONGJIAWEIXIAOFEINENGLIQUESHISHOUYINGXIANG。

3、CIGAODUANJIAWEIJIXUBIAOXIANCHUQIANGXUQIU,DANZAIJIAWEI、PINPAIDEXUANZESHANG,BUTONGQIYECHAYIJIWEIMINGXIAN(JIANGSUSHI400-700YUAN,ANHUISHI200-300YUAN;PINPAISHANGHENAN、SHANDONGSHIJIANGJIULINGXIAN,HEBEIZEXIANGDUIBIJIAOFENSAN)。

4、高端价位表现出需求加速,而且在价位和品牌的统一性上非常强:全国都是1000元价位是五粮液和国窖,3000元是茅台

ERSHIJINGZHENGFENHUAMINGXIAN,YIQINGHOUYOUSHIQIYEDEFUSUDANXINGGENGHAO,BORUOQIYEZEHUIFUDEXIANGDUIFALI,CONGAPINPAIJIZHONGDUDEJIAODULAIKAN,XINGYESHIJIASUJIZHONGDE。

2021NIANZHANWANG――GEQIYEFABUSHISIWUYUQI,MUBIAOZHIDINGJIBENHELI

YI、MAOTAI:JITUANCENGMIANTICHU2025NIAN2000YIDESHOURUMUBIAO。JIUGUFENGONGSIERYAN,ZONGHEKAOLVCHANNENGDEXIANZHI、LIANGJIADEPINGHENGDENGYINSU,WEILAIWUNIANGUFENGONGSICENGMIANFUHESHOURUZENGSUKENENGZAI12-13%ZUOYOU;DANRUGUOXILIEJIUGONGSINENGGOUHUODEJIASUZENGZHANG,ZENGSUYOUWANGJIXUSHANGSHENG。YUJI2020NIAN/2021NIAN/2022NIANSHOURUZENGSUFENBIEWEI10%/14%/15%,LIRUNZENGSU12%/15%/16%,JIXUWEICHIMAIRUPINGJI。

ER、WULIANGYE:GONGSIYUELAIYUEJIEJINCHANNENGJIXIAN,SUOYIWEILAILIANGZENGBUHUISHIQIYEHEXINDONGLI,DANSHICHIXUJIAZENGQUEDINGXINGBIJIAOQIANG。ERZAIGAODUANKUORONGDEDASHIXIA,WULIANGYEYISHIHUICHONGFENXIANGSHOUXINGYEHONGLI,ERSHIHUIYINLINGXINGYEGAODUANJIUJIXUSHANGXING(WULIANGYEHUIZHUJIANDAO1500YUAN、GENGYUANDEWEILAIHUIZAI2000YUAN)。2021NIANGUJIHUISHIWULIANGYESHOURUHELIRUNWENJIANZENGZHANGDEYINIAN,DANWOMENPANDUAN2021NIANHUISHIWULIANGYEQIYEZHIDI、ZHANLVEGEJUGAODUTISHENGDEYINIAN。YUJI2020NIAN/2021NIAN/2022NIANSHOURUZENGSUFENBIEWEI14%/17%/18%,LIRUNZENGSU18%/20%/19%,JIXUWEICHIMAIRUPINGJI。

三、汾酒:公司战略持续升级,青30年剑指高端化,收入上也有400亿的十四五规划目标。汾酒具备这样的潜力,而我们需要长期观察的:一是组织的建设,400亿的收入需要强大组织去支撑;二是品牌的升级,高端酒是一个慢活,需要时间慢慢老熟;三是区域的落地,汾酒要证明自己能够做深区域,河南、山东能否做到10亿,是重要的观察点。就2021年来看,汾酒大概率能够继续实现量价齐升,玻汾会继续提价,青花汾量增的同时,青花20/30的价格我们判断也会再上新台阶,全年收入和利润有望继续双超预期。预计2020年/2021年/2022年收入增速分别为17%/20%/22%,利润增速40%/27%/30%,继续维持买入评级。

SI、GUJINGGONG:2020NIANZAOYUYIQINGCHONGJI,WOMENYUJIGUJINGGONGHUIJIANGDI2020NIANDESHOURUZENGZHANGMUBIAO;RUGUOZHENSHIRUCI,DUIYUGUJINGGONGWULUNSHIQUKUCUNHAISHI2021NIANDEZAIZENGZHANGDOUSHILIHAO。CONGJINGZHENGGEJUSHANGLAIKAN,GUJINGGONGZAISHENGNEIJIXUHANGSHIGAOQUEDINGXING;CONGCHANPINJIEGOUSHANGLAIKAN,GUJINGGONGDEGU8YISHANGCHANPINJIXUBAOCHIGAOZENGZHANG;CONGZHANGXIANBUJUSHANGLAIKAN,NIANSANSHIDESHANGSHI,JIXUDAKAIGUJINGGONGCHENGZHANGSHANGXIAN,ZHONGZHANGQIJIXUJIANDINGKANHAOGUJINGGONG。YUJI2020NIAN/2021NIAN/2022NIANSHOURUZENGSUFENBIEWEI7%/21%/18%,LIRUNZENGSU1%/27%/21%,JIXUWEICHIMAIRUPINGJI。

WU、JINSHIYUAN:YINWEIYANGHEDEFUSU,JINSHIYUANDEGUZHIBEIYADI。DANCONGNEIZAIZHIDILAIKAN,SHOUXIANSIKAIDEQUEDINGXINGJIAOQIANG,HAIZAICHIXUGAOZENGZHANGZHONG;QICIYINWEISIKAIDEJUEQI,DATONGLEJINSHIYUANZAISHENGNEIDEXIAOFEIRENZHI、QUDAOWANGLUO,ZHEISHIV3、V9WEILAIKECHIXUZENGZHANGDEJICHU;DISAN,CONGZUZHISHANGLAIKAN,SIKAIHAIJIQIYEDAILAILEJUYOUZHANDOULIDEZUZHI,ZHEISHIQIYEZHANGQIFAZHANDEGENBENBAOZHANG。JINSHIYUANZUOCHULE“SHISIWUMUBIAOZAIFANFAN”DEGUIHUA,FUHEZENGSUZAI15%ZUOYOU,WOMENPANDUANZHEIGEKENDINGBUSHIJINSHIYUANDEZUIZHONGMUBIAO,SHIJIWANCHENGHENYOUKENENGHUICHAOCHUZHEIYIGUIHUAMUBIAO。YUJI2020NIAN/2021NIAN/2022NIANSHOURUZENGSUFENBIEWEI8%/25%/22%,LIRUNZENGSU8%/24%/26%,JIXUWEICHIMAIRUPINGJI。

六、洋河:聚焦M6+的洋河2020年基本完成企业基本面的改革,M6+重塑洋河在省内的价格标杆地位。长期来看,聚焦M6+的战略绝对正确,但唯一的不确定性在于目前来看M6+700元的价位定位不在当前的行业主流价位,短期全国化放量的难度较大。因此,洋河在省外市场的产品策略及效率,决定企业2021年的业绩增长弹性。预计2020年/2021年/2022年收入增速分别为-4%/10%/11%,利润增速3%/15%/17%,继续维持买入评级。

QI、KOUZIJIAO:HEGUJINGGONGYIYANG,ZAI2020NIANYIQINGCHONGJIXIA,CHUNJIEQIJIANXIAOLIANGSUNSHIMINGXIAN;DANJIEGOUSHANGLAIKAN,KOUZIJIAO10YISHANGCHANPIN2020NIANGUJIRENGRANSHIXIANLEDALIANGWEISHUZENGZHANG,XIAOFEISHENGJIDELUOJIZAIKOUZIJIAOZHEILIYESHITONGDE。CONGNEIZAIZHIDILAIKAN,CHANPINZHUYIDEKOUZIJIAO,ZAIANHUISHENGNEIDEJICHUYIRANGENSHENDIGU;CONGQIYEGAISHANSHANGLAIKAN,WULUNSHICIGAODUANDEZHONGSHI、CHANPINDEJUJIAODU、HAISHIZUZHIDEQIANGHUADU,KOUZIJIAODOUZAICHIXUGAISHAN。2021NIANBAITUOYIQINGHOU,YUJIKOUZIJIAONENGGOUHUIFUZHENGCHANGZENGZHANGSHUIPING,DIEJIA2020NIANXIAHUADAOZHIDEXINGCHENGDIJISHU,2021NIANSHOURUZENGSUYOUWANGKUAISUTISHENG。YUJI2020NIAN/2021NIAN/2022NIANSHOURUZENGSUFENBIEWEI11%/16%/12%,LIRUNZENGSU-17.6%/20%/15%,JIXUWEICHIMAIRUPINGJI。

BA、JIUGUIJIU:NEICANDEQUANNIANYUJI70%+DEZENGZHANGCUIHUALEQUANNIANDEGUJIATISHENG。JIBENMIANSHANGSHENGNEIZAICISHIXIANJIAOGAOZENGSU,MINGNIANSHICHANGYUQIZHUBUZHUANYISHENGWAIPUHUOQINGKUANGXIA,YUJIQUANNIANNENGGOUJIYUZHENGTINEICANZENGLIANGYIZHULI。WOMENPANDUANNEICANZHENGTIZUODAO10YI+JIANGSHISHICHANGYUQISUOZAI。ZHENGTISHOURUWOMENYUJIWEICHIBUBIAN,YUJIJIN40%DEZENGSU,JIXUWEICHIMAIRUPINGJI。

投资建议

ZHENGTISHANG,WOMENRENWEIGAODUANJIUBIAOXIANCHUGENGQIANGDEGANGXUXINGHECHENGZHANGCHIXUXING,QIBENZHIDEXIAOFEILUOJISHI:GAODUANJIUZAIYIXIECHANGJINGXIABIAOXIANCHUGENGQIANGDEGANGXUXING(BIRUSONGLI、ZHONGYAOYANQING、SONGLIDENG,YOUHENQIANGDEBEIPOXING,ERBUSHIXIAOFEIZHEDEZHUDONGXUANZE),ERCIGAODUANZEGENGXIANGSHIXIAOFEISHENGJIDETIXIAN(GENJUXIAOFEINENGLI,QUXUANZEBUTONGJIAWEI;KEYIGENJUZIJIXIHAO,XUANZEBUTONGPINPAI)。YINCI,2021NIANZHENGTIBAIJIUGUZHIZONGXIANGLAIKANJIAOGAODEQINGKUANGXIA,WOMENYIFANGMIANKANHAOBAIJIUSAIDAODEZHANGQIKONGJIAN,LINGWAIYIFANGMIANRENWEIMINGNIANJIBENMIANHUIFUHOUYIJIUKEYIDUIJIBENMIANYOUCUIHUA,YINCIYISHANGFUGAIBIAODEJUNWEICHIMAIRUPINGJI,TONGSHIPAILIECIXUSHANGMIANYOUXIANGAODUANPINPAI,QICISHICIGAODUANPINPAI。

FENGXIANTISHI:①YIQINGHAIKENENGHUIFANFU;②SHIPINANQUANWENTI;③DUANQIKUCUNZAOCHENGDESHICHANGYALI;④2021NIANXUQIUFALI。

    关键词:白酒股 白酒板块  来源:华西证券  佚名
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